Open Source Unleashed

Thoughts on the open source database market

As a precursor to OSCON this week, Forrester stepped forward with a new report titled  "Market Update: Open Source Databases," one that tags the current market for open source database market at $850 million, with growth to $1.2 billion by 2010. I haven't seen the entire report but I did get around to reading the excerpt available on Forrester's web site. I'd sum up my thoughts on the future of open source databases by saying that they will continue as a tool of choice for applications that are ants in comparisons to the sledgehammers of the database world (Oracle, IBM). Obviously, Sun's strategic vision for MySQL will play no small part in this picture. However, open source databases will fuel a great deal of the innovation that has yet to surface (think cloud computing, corporate Web 2.0 and improved forms of content management).

New types of applications that have yet to breach mainstream are already being developed atop open source databases. We saw this with MySQL and web applications and we'll continue to see a similar relationship develop between open source databases and application developers who sit closer to the cutting edge. Additionally, I'm looking for more and more consulting houses to begin offering implementation services for open source databases as the demand for newer types of solutions emerges. Still, it will remain difficult to determine just how big the pond is for open source databases since they will continue to power a great deal of applications in anonymity.

I also fully expect that open source database vendors will begin to better harmonize the potential of their communities with business models. As it stands, the open source community is the place to go for support with non-production deployments. And there are more effective ways to align this with the delivery of 24x7 premium support. Tiered layers of support patrons could emerge as a monetization vehicle that serves user who don't want to sign up for the traditional support contract but want a fast track for feedback to questions and issue resolution.

I've got the feeling that we'll also witness the emergence of Ingres as a more noted player in this segment. In the past, it has lacked the visibility of a MySQL or PostgreSQL/EnterpriseDB. However, since splitting from CA two years back, it has continued to build out a comprehensive set of database features. Still, the company needs to figure out how to gain back the implicit sense of credibility that being associated with CA brought it amongst the enterprise crowd.

Along the same lines I see Firebird retaining its occult-esque status with a subsection of developers who recognize its value as solid technology. At the current moment, Firebird lacks a cohesive face and/or supporting vendor so it continues to fly under the radar despite its relative strengths. It won't be able to establish enough penetration outside the developer community until the prospect of fully supported production deployments becomes a reality. Then again, I'm not so sure that's the ultimate goal of the project.

Technorati Tags: MySQL |  open source software | Ingres |  PostgreSQL | Firebird | RDMS

Thoughts on the latest release candidate for MySQL 5.1

Now that MySQL has decided to ready the final Release Candidate (RC) for version 5.1 instead of moving forward with a General Availability (GA) release and Michael Widenius has extended an bug filing call to its user community. I've been thinking about where MySQL stands as an official 5.1 release has been pushed back. For all it's dominance as the glue for LAMP stacks and engine for Web 2.0 infrastructure, my thoughts on MySQL have little to do with Sun's $1B acquisition or whether it can topple Oracle DB. Rather, they're focused on core realities associated with the product itself. Namely:

• For those who remember, MySQL 4 left a bad taste in the mouth of more than a few. Not that anyone expected it to be perfect but the lack of so called "advanced" features like triggers, sprocs, udf's were a turnoff. To this day there is a healthy segment of PostgreSQL users that swear MySQL is an amoeba in comparison, and most base this assertion on having used MySQL 4...seriously. A lot of this is understandable, version 4 lacked support for things like nested SELECT's so it's to be expected that some folks' experience was less than ideal. Unfortunately, those who fled MySQL before the 5.0 was available missed out on some notable additions, including syntax changes that moved it closer to ANSI standards.

• The 5.1 GA will be the first widely available release with native XML functions. I'm waiting to see if there's any indexing support behind all the xPath.

• MySQL has consistently trumped PostgreSQL with it's ease of install, maintenance, and lower levels of complexity. Still, MySQL lacks what some would call the basic ability to store a timestamps with greater than a second accuracy. In the operational world a database that can't do that would be considered a step away from Access. At least milliseconds are required and microseconds are preferred. Note: MySQL currently recommends stripping the sub-second information from the time sent, storing it in another column, then implementing a view which combines them back. However, for functionality that classed as basic this comes across as overkill...especially when the database's calling card is simplicity.

• Apparently, before being bought by Sun, MySQL AB were already contemplating making the move to more proprietary tools. From what I've been told, it was agreed that this was a natural progression that would enable them to monetize pieces of the pie. Talks were set in motion and the decision was left on the table...then Sun purchased them. After the acquisition, Sun didn't see the need to/benefit in proceeding down that path in the near term but took heat as some fingered them as the original source of the idea.

At the end of the day, the delay of version 5.1 GA will afford us with a look at what the priorities for Sun's adopted open source child are at this point. The state in which 5.1 hits the ground running will reflect how Sun intends to position MySQL moving forward. My hunch is that we'll witness longer gaps between releases as more focus is paid to QA, testing, certification and feature stability than in the past.

Technorati Tags: MySQL |  open source software | Sun Microsystems

Is the MySQL acquisition an open source crystal ball?

Glyn Moody's piece over on the Linux Journal highlighted what is becoming a common suggestion following the MySQL acquisition, i.e. that the purchase of one of the most successful commercial open source companies foreshadows the "fate" for similar outfits. To credit Glyn's perspective, there is a noticeable rash of acquisitions that have begun to characterize the face of "open source success" as of late, each of which has generated a fair share of coverage so there's not much need to rehash details at this point. However, in spite of the tendency to note solely that "big proprietary guys" are buying the "upstart open source kids," consideration of the effects of such mergers and acquisitions should not be limited to a proprietary VS. open source/winner-loser perspective.

Interestingly, the increasing number of corporate divisions composed of formerly independent open source firms speaks more to an industry-wide transition than to the co-opt of one model (open source) by another (proprietary). By that I mean, openness has begun to emerge as a critical feature of software ecosystems that are intent on effectively competing in the marketplace. When coupled with the trend of consolidation that has gripped the entire software industry it has resulted in the buyout of several notable open source companies...a direction that will continue over the next 12-18 months but also one that isn't relegated to the open source space. In fact, Oracle's purchase of BEA does more to validate that this is definitely an industry-wide condensation phase if nothing else.

On a related note Glyn's article briefly mentioned shaken investor confidence in light of recent troubles in world stock markets across the world, but did little to highlight the fact that the public markets in the U.S. aren't exactly a safe bet now that the dreaded "r-word" continues to circle key economic and financial circles. Additionally, since no one is sure how long this economic downturn will last, the prospect of "riding the storm out" isn't as appealing as it might have been 6 to 8 months ago. Along the same lines, as larger, traditional software companies witness the rapidly decreasing degree of sustainability of their closed product portfolios I expect that open source will become complete its transformation from a competitive threat to a feature of overall corporate strategy. And these companies will have to consider the overall costs of instilling openness themselves (a risk-laden prospect) versus snapping it in the M&A markets.

Currently acquisition ranks as the preferred method for adapting to the potential threat/opportunity presented by open source disruption, but it's my perspective that various forms of direct investment in open source ecosystems will out pace a great deal of the acquisition activity by 2010. More companies will recognize the value of aligning with open source efforts outside of looking to buy the commercial operations behind them. This should result in a new wave of partnerships, technology integration agreements and more community involvement by large corporations, one which will strengthen the crop of "surviving" open source vendors.

The bottom line is that the dynamics of industry evolution/change which have shaped open source as an emergent, productive force all operate in conjunction with actions of industry players both large and small. So while recent acquisitions provide great fodder for the blogosphere and news wire, the supposition that they will result in a dying breed of commercial open source vendor is not supported by overarching, industry-wide movements and indicators.

Technorati Tags: MySQL |  open source software | corporate strategy |  M&A | trends and indicators | industry evolution

Will MySQL prove to be Sun's fifth element?

Nearly three months back I asserted that Sun might benefit from addressing  the fact that its open source portfolio lacks a unifying theme/brand. Today, news that the company is to acquire MySQL for $1bn triggered thoughts on Sun's new position as an evolving open source vendor. Undoubtedly, the financial/organizational impacts will be discussed across the entire blogosphere as well as mainstream outlets. Yet, I've come to a hypothesis that MySQL might be Sun's fifth element. All inconsequential associations to the 1997 production featuring Bruce Willis aside, it's worth noting that the buyout does nothing but boost Sun's position as a leading platform provider for the Web economy in spite of Java taking a back seat to LAMP, Rails, et al. Moreover, with MySQL under its corporate umbrella, the company is in possession of a potential catalyst for the continued emergence its own commercial open source ecosystem.

Here are my thoughts on the acquisition:

• MySQL should help to stimulate the relevance of Sun's tooling and Enterprise Application Infrastructure. Look no further than Oracle for an example of leveraging market share in the database market to cross-sell middleware. On a related note, the company will follow a similar approach with the newly acquired BEA suite that it has with Fusion middleware. Obviously MySQL is no 800-pound gorilla but it's not outlandish to envision GlassFish, OpenSolaris and Netbeans  benefiting from the "cross-germination" opportunities made possible by the presence of MySQL. How and where to transform this into profitable engine for open source success is up to Sun's management to figure out.
• Sun will run with the MySQL and Data Warehousing. In addition to integrating current MySQL solution providers into its sales channel strategy, Sun is better positioned to grow the MySQL Data Warehouse Scale-Out Solution set into a bigger player across the enterprise data center landscape than MySQL was as a standalone entity. I'm looking for the company to make some noise there first.
• How will Sun play the LAMP angle? MySQL puts the M in LAMP, after all. And while Sun has already shown acceptance of the Rich Internet Applications & Web 2.0 "writing on the wall," see jMaki, the clarity/execution of its vision for harmonizing with MySQL's LAMP momentum will determine the which opportunities  present themselves.
• Sun as a capable rival to IBM in the cloud computing arena. Cote made mention of this already and to his point I would add, the availability of MySQL might give its utility computing arm added mainstream appeal for ISVs already invested in the MySQL platform.

Moving forward this move might potentially represent an inflection point in Sun's maturation process as a commercial open source vendor. However, I fully expect the company to go through the growing pains of integrating a smaller, distributed team into a larger, and admittedly more stuffy, big corporate environment, a la Red Hat with JBoss...although perhaps not as pronounced considering the differences between MySQL and JBoss culture. Oddly enough, as the acquisition rumors swirled about MySQL, Sun wasn't on my buyers short list. However, upon announcement they are the vendor for whom the move made the most sense and is best positioned to emerge as a stronger combined entity. We'll see if this continues to prove true down the road...

Technorati Tags: Sun Microsystems |  open source software | MySQL | LAMP | M&A