The title of this post reflects a sentiment which I hold regarding the lack of direction for tapping into the soon to be phenomenal demand for services in emerging markets such as China and India. Personally, I'm amazed at the lack of demonstrated initiative at the macro-level by the typically western-based organizations, foundations and companies directly involved with open source software in terms of beginning to address what the emergence of countries, their economies and productive potential will soon mean to the global open source movement. At the very least, open discussions need to start today as a precursor to developing well-rounded responses to an imminent reality.
It is a given that this reality remains incredibly complex and multifaceted, which is all the more reason to commence discussion of what it will mean from a technical, business and even political perspective. Whether you're thinking about doing business on foreign soil or not, the growth of these emerging markets coupled with a side-by-side dependence on open source to enable such growth will change the current dynamics within the entire open source software landscape. We've already witnessed Linux take hold in China and begin to lay the foundation for a healthy Chinese Linux ecosystem...and Linux is just the surface. It doesn't take much imagination to picture what will happen as other categories of open source follow suite. Additionally, what will the case be when the growth of categories of open source in the emerging world eclipse that in western markets? Linux on the desktop is poised to spread like wildfire in such places, but isn't facing the same exponential growth prospects further westward.
I still see several critical questions which remain unanswered, fit with equally wide-sweeping implications for open source across the world. The first of which is, will the progress made in other more developed parts of the globe affect the development curve of open source in places like China? Will the Chinese lean towards relying exclusively on internally established business models, products and approaches or will they reach outside their borders? If they do reach out, is anyone prepared to step forward and answer the call? Internationalization is a big theme right now, but it needs to be even bigger considering the expanse of a global playing field. How should open source projects and companies approach these opportunities in such a way as to not lose focus on their primary objectives?
Another question is how will the standards dance play itself out? Open standards provide great fodder for blog posts but are a bit trickier in actuality. Sun has already stepped to the plate in this regard, but more needs to be done across the board. Also, is there consensus recognition of the scale and consequence of the surrounding issues? From my perspective, far too many are ignoring what this stands to mean in 5-10 years and that's not a good thing at all. Yes it's a huge issue with no panacea available, but that's why it needs to be tackled. In this scenario, an open consortium and/or forum might not be a bad idea. It might be a solid way to invigorate thought leadership about this subject area while connecting a broad range of context.
Perhaps because very little to nothing can be done to control foreign policy and the host of other factors which hold sway over the direction of nations, most prefer to overlook the subject. However, it would be great to see more initiative in terms of investigating what can be done considering the current state of affairs. More virtual round-tables and just plain open dialogue would do well in this regard. Because, far from being a big business affair or an outsourcing offshoot, if those in the open source community don't comprehend how to best adjust to the role open source will play in the developing world the question is, who will?
The developing world has possibly more compelling reasons to adopt open source solutions - the cost advantage makes it easier for them, and there is less historical reliance on proprietary solutions (and in some instances, vendors like Microsoft are not well liked). As in many other aspects of Western life, we shouldn't expect developing countries to follow the same timeline we have - they are likely to leapfrog a number of the steps in OUR technological evolution to catch up more quickly than perhaps we imagine. Opensource adoption is one potential beneficiary of this.
Posted by: Ric | May 14, 2007 at 01:04 AM
Ric,
I agree fully. The question for open source in the developing world isn't if but when/how quickly large scale adoption occurs...
Alex
Posted by: Alex Fletcher | May 17, 2007 at 06:20 PM
Households and primarily children adore this out with the ordinary tour. A contemporary attraction are the double decker buses.
Posted by: Ed Hardy Sales | March 29, 2011 at 07:42 PM