Questions to ask about open source
As the open source software industry expands and grows at a blinding rate, it is important to keep the volume of activity surrounding it in perspective. In order to do so it is important to remain focused on key areas that will serve as indicators of the developing trends, and consequently where things are most likely headed. Trend analysis is important not simply in terms of predicting and/or forecasting but also in terms of determining the impact of a current course of direction.
Asking questions will begin the process of becoming aware that answers need to be uncovered. However, while nearly every question deserves an answer, some are simply more indicative of larger scale realities than others are. Also, concentrating on pure technology is really not effective at all when it comes to evaluating trends either. The focal point should be first and foremost, people. Just for the simple fact that people create, use and adopt technology, making it impossible to gauge its direction without watching the groups of people surrounding, using and affecting the technology itself.
Here are some of the questions that need to be asked when evaluating where the open source software industry is headed:
- Which types of technologies are emerging?
- What global adoption patterns are evident?
- What are the growth rates within the auxiliary service and support industries?
- How are pricing models adapting to industry wide changes?
- Are any new employment models developing as a result of the industry growth?
- Which paradigms are picking up steam? Which ones are fading?
- What is the rate of capital investment in companies within the industry?
- How is the general public's perception of the industry changing?
- Are industry wide changes encouraging risk taking or serving to curtail it?
- How are large established vendors responding to changes caused by industry transformation? Do they seem to embrace it? Are they against it and critical of growth and progress?
These types of questions can be asked by anyone who is interested in getting a good look at how open source is going to shape up in the coming future, and how those potential transformations are going to affect those involved with it. The key is in finding answers to these questions and using them to identify the telltale signs that map out what's in the open source industry's crystal ball.
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